Open Season
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$91.01
130 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $82.73 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.24%
29 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 29 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$91.01130 coins$86.80124 coins0.95x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Factory New)gloves · legendarygifu$91.01130 coins$282403 coins3.10x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Factory New)gloves · legendaryONE_TAP Jimmozzz$91.01130 coins$282403 coins3.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $91.01 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $91.10 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $92.21 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $92.46 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $92.36 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $92.38 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 46.1%legendary 3.3%extraordinary 4.0%restricted 20.0%classified 26.6%best hit —