Oracle

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$104.16

149 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $94.69 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

109.30%

67 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

67 openings · below min

30 days

67 openings · below min

since tracking started

67 openings · below min

-0.5%79.0%158.5%

Small sample. 67 openings and 15.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	63.63%±94.4	—	odds
7d	67	109.30%±23.5	—	odds
30d	67	109.30%±23.5	—	odds
All	67	109.30%±23.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$1,142 1,631 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$1,100 1,572 coins	2.9%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,857	$751 1,073 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,818	$571 815 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$406 580 coins	21.4%	4	3.4	1.19×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$304 434 coins	2.4%	2	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 67	$200 286 coins	3.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$183 261 coins	1.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$177 253 coins	3.7%	3	1.3	2.24×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 100	$152 217 coins	1.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 33	$115 164 coins	3.6%	1	2.0	0.50×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$113 161 coins	10.7%	5	6.0	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$102 146 coins	9.7%	2	6.0	0.33×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 17	$88.90 127 coins	5.6%	3	4.0	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$84.00 120 coins	8.9%	7	6.7	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$67.59 96.55 coins	5.7%	6	5.4	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$65.46 93.51 coins	6.2%	10	6.0	1.66×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 17	$62.39 89.13 coins	4.0%	5	4.0	1.24×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11	$51.07 72.95 coins	4.9%	8	6.0	1.33×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.9%	$19.36 27.66 coins	2.2%	6	7.3	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$15.83 22.62 coins	1.5%	4	6.0	0.66×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$104149 coins$1,1001,572 coins10.56x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$104149 coins$65.4693.51 coins0.63x1h

AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$104149 coins$19.3627.66 coins0.19x1h

Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$104149 coins$67.5996.55 coins0.65x1h

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covertBeastafiedBeast$104149 coins$113161 coins1.08x1h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$104149 coins$65.4693.51 coins0.63x1d

M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$104149 coins$15.8322.62 coins0.15x1d

AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$104149 coins$19.3627.66 coins0.19x1d

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted$104149 coins$84.00120 coins0.81x1d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$104149 coins$65.4693.51 coins0.63x1d

★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covertAnh Trithong$104149 coins$177253 coins1.70x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$104	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$104	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$105	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 19.0%extraordinary 5.3%covert 37.8%epic 1.0%mil spec 8.0%classified 19.9%industrial 9.0%best hit $1,100 (10.56x)