Orbital Cannon
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,948.27
4,212 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $2,680.25 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.62%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Rubyzombieking388$2,9484,212 coins$7,29410,420 coins2.47x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertSean da Paul$2,9454,208 coins$2,9794,255 coins1.01x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$2,9454,208 coins$1,6452,350 coins0.56x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$2,9454,208 coins$1,2481,783 coins0.42x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$2,9484,212 coins$1,1941,706 coins0.41x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert'My' Potatoooooo$2,9454,208 coins$1,0541,505 coins0.36x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertArrowtricks$2,9454,208 coins$1,0541,505 coins0.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFRULLKAKKA$2,9484,212 coins$1,0351,478 coins0.35x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Rubyzombieking388$2,9484,212 coins$7,29410,420 coins2.47x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$2,9484,212 coins$1,1941,706 coins0.41x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$2,9454,208 coins$1,6452,350 coins0.56x
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendarySn$k!3$2,9454,208 coins$7691,098 coins0.26x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$2,9454,208 coins$1,2481,783 coins0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2,948 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,945 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.0%covert 77.5%legendary 20.5%best hit $7,294 (2.47x)