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A case on CSGORoll (new, knives, 40%, gloves), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.43

22.04 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $14.02 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.33%

5,649 openings, odds method

Variance

20.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.85%±27.871,017 openings

7 days

91.33%±11.845,649 openings

30 days

91.33%±11.845,649 openings

since tracking started

91.33%±11.845,649 openings

55.5%84.0%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,017	83.85%±27.9	−0.5σ	odds
7d	5,649	91.33%±11.8	+0.1σ	odds
30d	5,649	91.33%±11.8	+0.1σ	odds
All	5,649	91.33%±11.8	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,379 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$2,615 3,735 coins	5.6%	2	1.9	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$1,720 2,457 coins	6.1%	5	3.2	1.57×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,429	$723 1,033 coins	3.6%	5	4.5	1.12×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$587 838 coins	4.2%	7	6.4	1.10×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$368 526 coins	6.6%	13	15.9	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$186 266 coins	6.6%	32	31.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$94.50 135 coins	6.7%	52	63.8	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 67	$80.50 115 coins	8.6%	100	95.7	1.05×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 40	$46.23 66.05 coins	8.2%	145	159.5	0.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	34.0%	$17.09 24.41 coins	41.4%	2,124	2168.9	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	20.0%	$0.55 0.78 coins	0.8%	1,281	1275.8	1.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	20.0%	$0.54 0.77 coins	0.8%	1,334	1275.8	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare	20.0%	$0.50 0.71 coins	0.7%	1,279	1275.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$15.4522.07 coins$2,6153,735 coins169.2x2d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$15.3721.96 coins$2,5943,705 coins168.7x4d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.4322.04 coins$1,7202,457 coins111.5x13h

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.4322.04 coins$1,7202,457 coins111.5x23h

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.4322.04 coins$1,7202,457 coins111.5x1d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.3721.96 coins$1,7202,457 coins111.9x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.3721.96 coins$7501,071 coins48.77x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.4322.04 coins$7231,033 coins46.87x17h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$15.4322.04 coins$0.550.78 coins0.04x12m

MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare$15.4322.04 coins$0.500.71 coins0.03x12m

MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · RareHeffa$15.4322.04 coins$0.500.71 coins0.03x12m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.4322.04 coins$17.0924.41 coins1.11x12m

P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$15.4322.04 coins$46.2366.05 coins3.00x12m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.4322.04 coins$17.0924.41 coins1.11x12m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$15.4322.04 coins$0.540.77 coins0.03x1h

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$15.4322.04 coins$0.550.78 coins0.04x1h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$15.4322.04 coins$0.540.77 coins0.03x1h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.4322.04 coins$17.0924.41 coins1.11x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$15.43	90.89%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.42	90.90%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.45	90.92%	13
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$15.37	90.90%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 34.5%covert 1.4%extraordinary 0.1%industrial 1.5%Legendary 2.5%Mythical 40.0%Rare 20.0%best hit $2,615 (169.2x)