Over 9000 IQ
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.12
27.32 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $17.39 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.78%
2,163 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,167 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedUser#89$19.1227.32 coins$0.881.26 coins0.05x
Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedcostel biju$19.1227.32 coins$42.7461.06 coins2.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $19.12 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $19.13 | 90.89% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $19.12 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $19.12 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $19.14 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.15 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.09 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $19.03 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $19.03 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $19.03 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $19.03 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.05 | 90.90% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.0%restricted 20.0%classified 16.0%industrial 11.0%mil spec 39.0%best hit —