Overload
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.45
0.64 coins
Advertised RTP
91.54%
EV $0.41 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
270.81%
21.9K openings, odds method
Variance
57243.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 142,857
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 21,887 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$0.450.64 coins$14.4K20,545 coins32,102x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.450.64 coins$11.9K17,000 coins26,563x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.54%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.45 | 91.54% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.45 | 91.01% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.45 | 91.14% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%contraband 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%consumer 100.0%best hit $14.4K (32,102x)