Oxidized

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$128.09

183 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $116.44 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.37%

46 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

45.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

54.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

46 openings · below min

since tracking started

46 openings · below min

66.5%85.3%104.0%

Small sample. 46 openings and 20.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	46	85.37%±18.2	—	odds
30d	46	85.37%±18.2	—	odds
All	46	85.37%±18.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$488 697 coins	2.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$221 316 coins	1.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$220 314 coins	3.8%	1	0.9	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| DreamHack 2014sticker · high	1 in 50	$204 291 coins	3.5%	0	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	40.0%	$193 276 coins	66.4%	18	18.4	0.98×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$118 169 coins	5.1%	4	2.3	1.74×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.5%	$68.92 98.46 coins	6.8%	4	5.3	0.76×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$47.48 67.83 coins	2.0%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$39.98 57.12 coins	1.7%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$34.22 48.88 coins	2.4%	6	3.7	1.63×
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	20.0%	$25.44 36.34 coins	4.4%	11	9.2	1.20×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.