Ozymandias
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$253.95
363 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $230.87 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.81%
111 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$254363 coins$7951,135 coins3.13x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$254363 coins$7951,135 coins3.13x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertm3$254363 coins$7951,135 coins3.13x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$257368 coins$7861,123 coins3.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$257368 coins$7861,123 coins3.05x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$254363 coins$264377 coins1.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $257 | 90.91% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 59.8%restricted 23.1%epic 2.8%remarkable 3.5%rare 5.3%legendary 3.0%extraordinary 2.5%best hit $1,002 (3.89x)