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Packed

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$8.18
11.68 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $7.43 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.56%
44.4K openings, odds method
Variance
13.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 39
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.69%±10.085,038 openings
7 days
90.57%±3.8035.9K openings
30 days
89.56%±3.4244.4K openings
since tracking started
89.56%±3.4244.4K openings
76.0%86.8%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5,03886.69%±10.1−0.8σodds
7d35.9K90.57%±3.80−0.1σodds
30d44.4K89.56%±3.42−0.7σodds
All44.4K89.56%±3.42−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$792 1,131 coins1.1%24.50.45×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$605 864 coins0.8%24.50.45×
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$505 721 coins0.7%44.50.90×
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$401 573 coins0.5%34.50.67×
★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$366 523 coins0.5%24.50.45×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$328 469 coins0.4%14.50.22×
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$299 427 coins0.4%44.50.90×
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$223 319 coins3.0%5744.51.28×
P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$218 312 coins14.7%216222.60.97×
★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 250$133 190 coins7.2%173178.10.97×
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$128 183 coins8.6%250222.61.12×
★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$123 176 coins0.2%44.50.90×
★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$122 174 coins4.9%132133.60.99×
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$116 166 coins3.1%7189.10.80×
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$98.70 141 coins6.6%205222.60.92×
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$95.20 136 coins6.4%218222.60.98×
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$88.90 127 coins6.0%220222.60.99×
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$84.00 120 coins5.7%224222.61.01×
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$72.80 104 coins4.9%240222.61.08×
★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald1 in 200$39.78 56.83 coins2.7%231222.61.04×
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$38.99 55.7 coins2.6%217222.60.97×
MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 41$37.46 53.52 coins12.2%1,0761077.51.00×
★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$34.31 49.01 coins2.3%229222.61.03×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$27.38 39.11 coins1.8%219222.60.98×
MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$20.05 28.65 coins1.3%221222.60.99×
USP-S | Overgrowth (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 200$17.39 24.84 coins1.2%243222.61.09×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer45.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.1%20,09520036.71.00×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer45.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%19,96720036.71.00×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$8.2811.83 coins$8141,163 coins98.31x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$8.2811.83 coins$8141,163 coins98.31x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryGobbles$8.2811.83 coins$8141,163 coins98.31x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$8.2811.83 coins$629899 coins75.99x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$8.1811.68 coins$605864 coins73.97x
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarymAY0NESY$8.2811.83 coins$515736 coins62.21x
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryDoktoraiai$8.1811.68 coins$505721 coins61.73x
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$8.1811.68 coins$505721 coins61.73x
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryTrex$8.1811.68 coins$505721 coins61.73x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerDoktoraiai$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersi^b^rO$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$8.1811.68 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$8.1890.89%28
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$8.1090.88%28
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$8.2890.91%28
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 6.1%classified 0.5%covert 0.5%mil spec 2.4%restricted 0.5%consumer 90.0%best hit $814 (98.31x)