Packed v2

A case on CSGORoll (gloves, 15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.95

32.79 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $20.87 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.73%

18.1K openings, odds method

Variance

18.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 48

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76.12%±25.081,120 openings

7 days

94.27%±6.7615.6K openings

30 days

96.73%±6.2718.1K openings

since tracking started

96.73%±6.2718.1K openings

50.5%77.0%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,120	76.12%±25.1	−1.2σ	odds
7d	15.6K	94.27%±6.76	+1.0σ	odds
30d	18.1K	96.73%±6.27	+1.8σ	odds
All	18.1K	96.73%±6.27	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$4,774 6,820 coins	2.3%	2	1.8	1.10×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$1,644 2,349 coins	1.6%	6	3.6	1.65×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 3,333	$1,625 2,322 coins	2.3%	4	5.4	0.73×
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,000	$955 1,364 coins	2.3%	12	9.1	1.32×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,111	$903 1,290 coins	3.9%	32	16.3	1.96×
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$875 1,250 coins	8.4%	24	36.3	0.66×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$536 765 coins	5.1%	42	36.3	1.16×
★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$525 750 coins	5.0%	36	36.3	0.99×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 500	$469 670 coins	4.5%	40	36.3	1.10×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 400	$407 582 coins	4.9%	52	45.4	1.15×
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 400	$364 520 coins	4.4%	54	45.4	1.19×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Battle-Scarred)gloves · epic	1 in 333	$293 419 coins	4.2%	62	54.4	1.14×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 333	$214 305 coins	3.1%	62	54.4	1.14×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 333	$199 284 coins	2.9%	56	54.4	1.03×
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 286	$175 250 coins	2.9%	51	63.5	0.80×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 286	$157 224 coins	2.6%	62	63.5	0.98×
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 286	$156 223 coins	2.6%	62	63.5	0.98×
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 286	$155 221 coins	2.6%	81	63.5	1.28×
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 286	$137 195 coins	2.3%	68	63.5	1.07×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 250	$134 191 coins	2.6%	71	72.6	0.98×
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 250	$119 170 coins	2.3%	77	72.6	1.06×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 250	$118 168 coins	2.3%	64	72.6	0.88×
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 250	$100 143 coins	1.9%	61	72.6	0.84×
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 200	$92.40 132 coins	2.2%	87	90.7	0.96×
★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 200	$89.60 128 coins	2.1%	92	90.7	1.01×
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 200	$87.50 125 coins	2.1%	94	90.7	1.04×
★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 200	$79.80 114 coins	1.9%	97	90.7	1.07×
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 200	$65.44 93.48 coins	1.6%	102	90.7	1.12×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 15	$40.58 57.97 coins	13.1%	1,240	1224.7	1.01×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	42.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	7,717	7711.2	1.00×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common	42.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	7,634	7711.2	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$23.3733.38 coins$4,7886,840 coins204.9x4d

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$23.3733.38 coins$4,7886,840 coins204.9x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Factory New)gloves · legendary$23.3733.38 coins$1,8442,635 coins78.94x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Factory New)gloves · legendaryTheLiarGod$23.3733.38 coins$1,8442,635 coins78.94x8d

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Factory New)gloves · legendary$23.3733.38 coins$1,7472,495 coins74.75x4d

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Factory New)gloves · legendary$23.3733.38 coins$1,7472,495 coins74.75x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · commonwSe$22.9532.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare$22.9532.79 coins$40.5857.97 coins1.77x2m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$22.9532.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$22.95	90.92%	31
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$22.88	90.91%	31
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$23.37	90.91%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.7%epic 2.9%rare 10.5%common 85.0%best hit $4,788 (204.9x)