Pandora

A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.68

55.26 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $35.16 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.28%

1,944 openings, odds method

Variance

16.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.64%±39.01407 openings

7 days

82.40%±19.131,671 openings

30 days

89.28%±17.711,944 openings

since tracking started

89.28%±17.711,944 openings

43.0%82.8%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	407	82.64%±39.0	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,671	82.40%±19.1	−0.9σ	odds
30d	1,944	89.28%±17.7	−0.2σ	odds
All	1,944	89.28%±17.7	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,944 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$27.5K 39,250 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 33,333	$11.4K 16,295 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 20,000	$8,057 11,510 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 12,500	$4,655 6,650 coins	1.1%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$3,941 5,630 coins	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$2,982 4,260 coins	1.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 3,333	$2,156 3,080 coins	1.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$1,865 2,665 coins	1.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$1,000 1,429 coins	1.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,250	$891 1,273 coins	2.0%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 1,111	$622 889 coins	1.6%	1	1.7	0.57×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$541 773 coins	1.5%	2	1.9	1.03×
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$99.40 142 coins	27.1%	208	186.1	1.12×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	90.0%	$21.94 31.34 coins	56.2%	1,731	1749.6	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$39.7156.73 coins$4,8306,900 coins121.6x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$39.7156.73 coins$1,9492,785 coins49.09x5d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$39.7156.73 coins$657938 coins16.53x7d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.6855.26 coins$541773 coins13.99x2h

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$39.7156.73 coins$541773 coins13.63x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.6855.26 coins$21.9431.34 coins0.57x42m

MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$38.6855.26 coins$21.9431.34 coins0.57x42m

MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.6855.26 coins$21.9431.34 coins0.57x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$38.68	90.90%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$38.93	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.71	90.92%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 0.2%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 9.6%restricted 90.0%best hit $4,830 (121.6x)