Paradox
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$45.73
65.33 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $41.57 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.93%
623 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 623 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $198 283 coins | 14.3% | 22 | 18.7 | 1.18× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $197 281 coins | 11.8% | 10 | 15.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $162 231 coins | 3.9% | 2 | 6.2 | 0.32× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $162 231 coins | 15.6% | 35 | 24.9 | 1.40× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $144 205 coins | 5.2% | 13 | 9.3 | 1.39× |
| AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 27.0% | $65.95 94.22 coins | 42.8% | 159 | 168.2 | 0.95× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 14 | $15.30 21.85 coins | 2.6% | 51 | 43.6 | 1.17× |
| Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 12.0% | $13.26 18.94 coins | 3.8% | 82 | 74.8 | 1.10× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 42.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 249 | 261.7 | 0.95× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerGreenallDAY$45.7365.33 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$45.7365.33 coins$13.2618.94 coins0.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $45.73 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $45.92 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.77 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 37.5%extraordinary 1.5%mil spec 19.0%consumer 42.0%best hit —