Paralyzer

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.82

5.45 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $3.47 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.01%

20.6K openings, odds method

Variance

15.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.31%±18.931,617 openings

7 days

93.42%±5.4918.1K openings

30 days

92.01%±5.1420.6K openings

since tracking started

92.01%±5.1420.6K openings

76.5%96.2%116.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,617	96.31%±18.9	+0.6σ	odds
7d	18.1K	93.42%±5.49	+0.9σ	odds
30d	20.6K	92.01%±5.14	+0.4σ	odds
All	20.6K	92.01%±5.14	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 83,333	$1,271 1,816 coins	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22,222	$1,050 1,500 coins	1.4%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,753	$557 795 coins	1.5%	4	1.9	2.09×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$451 645 coins	3.3%	6	5.1	1.17×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 1,818	$270 386 coins	4.3%	12	11.3	1.06×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 1,538	$152 217 coins	2.8%	9	13.4	0.67×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$108 154 coins	2.5%	18	16.5	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,111	$59.58 85.12 coins	1.5%	14	18.5	0.76×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$42.21 60.3 coins	1.5%	19	24.7	0.77×
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$21.95 31.35 coins	2.5%	68	82.4	0.83×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$10.91 15.59 coins	2.2%	146	144.2	1.01×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 105	$8.44 12.05 coins	2.3%	195	195.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 57	$6.05 8.64 coins	3.1%	331	360.5	0.92×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$5.58 7.97 coins	4.7%	554	597.4	0.93×
Sticker \| electronic (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · exotic	1 in 16	$5.16 7.37 coins	9.1%	1,254	1266.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.2%	$5.05 7.21 coins	14.8%	2,047	2101.1	0.97×
Sticker \| Gold Web (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6	12.5%	$3.14 4.48 coins	11.3%	2,589	2574.9	1.01×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.5%	$2.85 4.07 coins	11.9%	3,019	2986.9	1.01×
MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.5%	$2.49 3.56 coins	11.1%	3,258	3192.8	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	16.5%	$1.39 1.98 coins	6.6%	3,427	3398.8	1.01×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	17.5%	$0.22 0.32 coins	1.1%	3,627	3604.8	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire$3.825.45 coins$1,2711,816 coins333.2x22h

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$3.895.56 coins$1,1001,572 coins282.7x4d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$3.895.56 coins$557795 coins143.0x2d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$3.895.56 coins$557795 coins143.0x5d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertRyan$3.895.56 coins$557795 coins143.0x5d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertxXxBlackqunxXx$3.905.57 coins$557795 coins142.7x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$3.895.56 coins$385550 coins98.92x4d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$3.895.56 coins$385550 coins98.92x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Gold Web (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6$3.825.45 coins$3.144.48 coins0.82x3m

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$3.825.45 coins$1.391.98 coins0.36x3m

Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommonHoen$3.825.45 coins$0.220.32 coins0.06x3m

Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$3.825.45 coins$0.220.32 coins0.06x7m

MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$3.825.45 coins$2.493.56 coins0.65x7m

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDxp_h1$3.825.45 coins$2.854.07 coins0.75x7m

Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$3.825.45 coins$0.220.32 coins0.06x11m

Sticker | Gold Web (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6PsIcHo csgoroll.com$3.825.45 coins$3.144.48 coins0.82x11m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.825.45 coins$5.587.97 coins1.46x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$3.82	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$3.82	90.94%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.91	90.84%	21
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$3.89	90.99%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.90	90.88%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 24.9%rare 0.1%restricted 35.9%mil spec 1.1%uncommon 19.3%exotic 6.2%#d32ce6 12.5%best hit $1,271 (333.2x)