Paranoid

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$229.15

327 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $208.32 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.59%

704 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80 openings · below min

7 days

93.11%±12.83581 openings

30 days

93.59%±11.64704 openings

since tracking started

93.59%±11.64704 openings

41.0%76.5%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	80	76.43%±34.9	—	odds
7d	581	93.11%±12.8	+0.3σ	odds
30d	704	93.59%±11.6	+0.5σ	odds
All	704	93.59%±11.6	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 704 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$5,688 8,125 coins	8.2%	3	2.1	1.42×
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 133	$1,387 1,982 coins	5.0%	6	5.3	1.14×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$1,292 1,845 coins	4.3%	5	4.9	1.01×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$1,233 1,762 coins	2.4%	2	2.8	0.71×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 182	$806 1,152 coins	2.1%	1	3.9	0.26×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$795 1,135 coins	3.8%	9	7.0	1.28×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 200	$767 1,095 coins	1.8%	3	3.5	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 125	$751 1,073 coins	2.9%	7	5.6	1.24×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$642 917 coins	6.2%	17	14.1	1.21×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 154	$475 678 coins	1.5%	5	4.6	1.09×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 29	$287 410 coins	4.8%	20	24.6	0.81×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$235 336 coins	3.4%	20	21.1	0.95×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 25	$197 281 coins	3.8%	33	28.2	1.17×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	19.4%	$189 270 coins	17.6%	118	136.2	0.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 15	$118 168 coins	3.7%	56	45.8	1.22×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 14	$115 165 coins	3.9%	41	49.3	0.83×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$115 164 coins	2.8%	31	35.2	0.88×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.0%	$113 162 coins	6.5%	80	84.5	0.95×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$102 145 coins	4.9%	74	70.4	1.05×
Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	14.0%	$100 143 coins	6.7%	108	98.6	1.10×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 13	$99.40 142 coins	3.8%	65	56.3	1.15×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covertThe other other guy$229327 coins$5,6888,125 coins24.82x1d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$233333 coins$5,6888,125 coins24.43x4d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$233333 coins$5,6888,125 coins24.43x7d

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$233333 coins$1,4152,021 coins6.08x4d

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkableŘəđ§ķý$233333 coins$1,4152,021 coins6.08x5d

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$233333 coins$1,4152,021 coins6.08x5d

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$233333 coins$1,4152,021 coins6.08x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | v4lde (Gold) | London 2018sticker · extraordinary$229327 coins$100143 coins0.44x5m

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$229327 coins$102145 coins0.44x5m

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$229327 coins$642917 coins2.80x5m

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertkarma$229327 coins$102145 coins0.44x5m

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$229327 coins$189270 coins0.82x32m

Sticker | v4lde (Gold) | London 2018sticker · extraordinary$229327 coins$100143 coins0.44x46m

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$229327 coins$115164 coins0.50x1h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$229327 coins$642917 coins2.80x1h

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$229327 coins$99.40142 coins0.43x3h

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$229327 coins$102145 coins0.44x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$229	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$233	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 78.4%remarkable 0.8%extraordinary 20.4%legendary 0.5%best hit $5,688 (24.82x)