Parlay

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$32.68

46.68 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $29.71 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.67%

3,266 openings, odds method

Variance

9.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.39%±40.23216 openings

7 days

81.15%±11.342,757 openings

30 days

82.67%±10.433,266 openings

since tracking started

82.67%±10.433,266 openings

39.5%80.5%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	216	80.39%±40.2	−0.5σ	odds
7d	2,757	81.15%±11.3	−1.7σ	odds
30d	3,266	82.67%±10.4	−1.6σ	odds
All	3,266	82.67%±10.4	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,266 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,089 1,555 coins	3.7%	1	3.3	0.31×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$861 1,230 coins	2.9%	6	3.3	1.84×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$856 1,223 coins	2.9%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$636 909 coins	2.1%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$588 840 coins	19.8%	23	32.7	0.70×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$517 738 coins	1.7%	3	3.3	0.92×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$466 666 coins	7.8%	16	16.3	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$222 317 coins	7.5%	30	32.7	0.92×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$200 286 coins	6.7%	39	32.7	1.19×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$198 283 coins	6.7%	27	32.7	0.83×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$194 277 coins	6.5%	39	32.7	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$158 225 coins	5.3%	28	32.7	0.86×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$151 215 coins	5.1%	31	32.7	0.95×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$151 215 coins	5.1%	45	32.7	1.38×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$122 175 coins	4.1%	23	32.7	0.70×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$93.10 133 coins	3.1%	33	32.7	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$66.79 95.42 coins	2.2%	13	32.7	0.40×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$61.62 88.03 coins	2.1%	35	32.7	1.07×
USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$59.65 85.22 coins	2.0%	34	32.7	1.04×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$33.81 48.3 coins	1.1%	32	32.7	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	21.0%	$1.15 1.65 coins	0.8%	726	685.9	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	21.0%	$0.83 1.18 coins	0.6%	660	685.9	0.96×
M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	21.0%	$0.10 0.14 coins	0.1%	698	685.9	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	22.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	720	718.5	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$32.1745.95 coins$1,1261,608 coins34.99x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$32.1745.95 coins$8751,250 coins27.20x8d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$32.6846.69 coins$8611,230 coins26.34x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$32.1745.95 coins$8611,230 coins26.77x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$32.1745.95 coins$8611,230 coins26.77x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$32.1745.95 coins$8611,230 coins26.77x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$32.1745.95 coins$8611,230 coins26.77x7d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$32.6846.69 coins$8561,223 coins26.19x1d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$32.1745.95 coins$641915 coins19.91x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$32.6846.68 coins$0.100.14 coins0.00x3m

Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$32.6846.68 coins$1.151.65 coins0.04x3m

SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$32.6846.68 coins$0.831.18 coins0.03x3m

MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialRelaxa *$32.6846.68 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3m

MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$32.6846.68 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3m

★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$32.6846.68 coins$61.6288.03 coins1.89x3m

SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$32.6846.68 coins$0.831.18 coins0.03x6m

MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$32.6846.68 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x6m

SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$32.6846.68 coins$0.831.18 coins0.03x6m

M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$32.6846.68 coins$0.100.14 coins0.00x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$32.68	90.92%	24
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$32.68	90.90%	24
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$32.70	90.92%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$32.84	90.91%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$32.17	90.90%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 11.0%extraordinary 1.0%classified 2.0%rare 1.0%Mythical 21.0%mil spec 21.0%Uncommon 21.0%industrial 22.0%best hit $1,126 (34.99x)