Party animals

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.29

14.7 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $9.36 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.70%

3,176 openings, odds method

Variance

8.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.40%±23.80555 openings

7 days

98.33%±10.922,637 openings

30 days

96.70%±9.963,176 openings

since tracking started

96.70%±9.963,176 openings

55.0%82.5%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	555	79.40%±23.8	−0.9σ	odds
7d	2,637	98.33%±10.9	+1.3σ	odds
30d	3,176	96.70%±9.96	+1.1σ	odds
All	3,176	96.70%±9.96	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,176 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 11,111	$2,051 2,930 coins	2.0%	1	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$551 787 coins	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 4,348	$525 750 coins	1.3%	1	0.7	—
Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,564	$407 582 coins	1.7%	2	1.2	1.61×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,041	$216 308 coins	1.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$162 232 coins	8.7%	19	15.9	1.20×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 115	$109 156 coins	10.2%	32	27.6	1.16×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$76.30 109 coins	8.2%	39	31.8	1.23×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$42.24 60.34 coins	9.5%	48	66.7	0.72×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 40	$29.46 42.09 coins	7.9%	69	79.4	0.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 23	$17.77 25.39 coins	8.4%	139	139.7	0.99×
Sticker \| ViCi Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable	1 in 20	$11.75 16.78 coins	6.2%	150	155.6	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$10.60 15.14 coins	5.8%	157	162.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$8.44 12.05 coins	4.6%	175	162.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 18	$8.27 11.82 coins	4.9%	181	174.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$6.96 9.95 coins	4.5%	181	190.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$5.06 7.23 coins	3.7%	241	216.0	1.12×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.77 6.82 coins	3.8%	235	238.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.53 3.61 coins	2.2%	235	254.1	0.92×
Music Kit \| Ki:Theory, MOLOTOVmusic kit · high	1 in 11	$1.74 2.48 coins	1.7%	280	292.2	0.96×
Sticker \| T Rush (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$1.33 1.9 coins	1.4%	341	317.6	1.07×
Sticker \| Cbbl (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$0.94 1.35 coins	1.0%	329	317.6	1.04×
Sticker \| Pegasus (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.4%	$0.85 1.22 coins	0.9%	321	330.3	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · RubyIRBZ$10.3214.74 coins$2,0512,930 coins198.8x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$10.3214.74 coins$535764 coins51.83x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Cbbl (Holo)sticker · remarkable$10.2914.7 coins$0.941.35 coins0.09x28s

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$10.2914.7 coins$6.969.95 coins0.68x28s

Sticker | Cbbl (Holo)sticker · remarkable$10.2914.7 coins$0.941.35 coins0.09x28s

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonhieschdavid$10.2914.7 coins$8.2711.82 coins0.80x28s

Sticker | T Rush (Holo)sticker · remarkable$10.2914.7 coins$1.331.9 coins0.13x2m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$10.2914.7 coins$5.067.23 coins0.49x2m

Sticker | T Rush (Holo)sticker · remarkableDisaster$10.2914.7 coins$1.331.9 coins0.13x2m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$10.2914.7 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.82x2m

Sticker | Cbbl (Holo)sticker · remarkableDrWein$10.2914.7 coins$0.941.35 coins0.09x24m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rareAjax absult 100%$10.2914.7 coins$17.7725.39 coins1.73x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$10.29	90.92%	23
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$10.31	90.92%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$10.31	90.88%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.32	90.93%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 3.2%remarkable 35.8%extraordinary 0.9%uncommon 8.0%rare 4.4%restricted 31.7%mil spec 6.8%high 9.2%best hit $2,051 (198.8x)