Peak heat
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.90
8.43 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $5.37 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.69%
4,690 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,706 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$5.908.43 coins$7.4810.68 coins1.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.90 | 90.92% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.84 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.84 | 90.92% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 1.3%exotic 0.1%extraordinary 1.0%base 0.2%remarkable 22.3%restricted 23.1%mil spec 2.7%pink 6.3%Mythical 9.0%industrial 14.0%high 20.0%best hit —