Pearly
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.72
68.17 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $43.38 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.79%
31 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
46.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 31 openings and 9.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrialViggerMcNieger$48.4169.15 coins$1.291.84 coins0.03x
★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · EmeraldViggerMcNieger$48.4169.15 coins$43.2561.79 coins0.89x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.72 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $48.41 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.41 | 90.92% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 4.5%covert 28.0%rare 0.0%mil spec 0.5%classified 5.0%restricted 22.0%industrial 40.0%best hit —