Perfect Storm
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.02
2.88 coins
Advertised RTP
91.01%
EV $1.83 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.57%
16.4K openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restrictedVobbe$2.022.88 coins$0.520.74 coins0.26x
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restrictedVobbe$2.022.88 coins$0.520.74 coins0.26x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$2.022.88 coins$2.373.38 coins1.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.02 | 91.01% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $1.99 | 90.83% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.99 | 90.75% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.99 | 90.79% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.02 | 90.82% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.02 | 90.75% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $2.02 | 91.02% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $2.01 | 90.99% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.01 | 91.06% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.01 | 90.99% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.01 | 90.77% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 37.3%red 0.1%covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%pink 0.1%classified 4.7%mil spec 16.3%remarkable 1.5%consumer 20.0%industrial 20.0%best hit —