Peril
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$589.51
842 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $535.92 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
48.04%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
22.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$590843 coins$6,7909,700 coins11.51x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary🟢Kick: JULSY$598854 coins$1,1151,593 coins1.86x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$590843 coins$6,7909,700 coins11.51x
AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified🟢LIVE kick/sn0wieTV GIVEAWAY$598854 coins$3.525.03 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $590 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $590 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $590 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $598 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $598 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $598 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 3.0%remarkable 1.1%base 0.1%covert 4.2%extraordinary 1.7%restricted 60.0%classified 30.0%best hit $6,790 (11.51x)