Permafrost

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.96

74.23 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $47.24 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.71%

2,626 openings, odds method

Variance

8.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.97%±24.13537 openings

7 days

99.76%±12.022,224 openings

30 days

96.71%±11.082,626 openings

since tracking started

96.71%±11.082,626 openings

56.0%84.3%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	537	80.97%±24.1	−0.8σ	odds
7d	2,224	99.76%±12.0	+1.4σ	odds
30d	2,626	96.71%±11.1	+1.0σ	odds
All	2,626	96.71%±11.1	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,627 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 250	$1,119 1,598 coins	9.5%	11	10.5	1.05×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$1,090 1,557 coins	9.2%	16	10.5	1.52×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$1,059 1,513 coins	2.2%	4	2.6	1.52×
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$879 1,256 coins	18.6%	23	26.3	0.88×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 250	$760 1,086 coins	6.4%	14	10.5	1.33×
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 11	$162 231 coins	29.8%	222	228.5	0.97×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$125 179 coins	5.3%	62	52.5	1.18×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$96.60 138 coins	6.1%	59	78.8	0.75×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$76.30 109 coins	8.1%	136	131.3	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$55.30 79 coins	4.7%	121	105.1	1.15×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	630	656.8	0.96×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	674	656.8	1.03×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	655	656.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$51.1273.03 coins$1,1341,620 coins22.18x3d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$51.1273.03 coins$1,1341,620 coins22.18x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$51.1273.03 coins$1,1341,620 coins22.18x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$51.1273.03 coins$1,1341,620 coins22.18x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$51.9674.23 coins$1,1191,598 coins21.53x21h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicOrcGazmas$51.9674.23 coins$1,1191,598 coins21.53x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJarza$51.9674.23 coins$55.3079 coins1.06x30m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.9674.23 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x37m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.9674.23 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.9674.23 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$51.9674.23 coins$162231 coins3.11x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerTyrone$51.9674.23 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.9674.23 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.9674.23 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.9674.23 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$51.96	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$51.95	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$52.04	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.12	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.4%covert 14.9%extraordinary 1.0%classified 8.7%consumer 75.0%best hit $1,134 (22.18x)