Pew Pew
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$130.29
186 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $118.45 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.90%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 78 openings and 8.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$130186 coins$1,9252,750 coins14.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$130186 coins$15.3021.85 coins0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $130 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $130 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $130 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 37.8%extraordinary 0.3%legendary 1.0%high 2.7%restricted 1.3%exotic 3.3%classified 5.0%mil spec 28.6%industrial 20.0%best hit $1,925 (14.78x)