Phantom

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.92

1.32 coins

Advertised RTP

90.71%

EV $0.84 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.34%

45.8K openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.40%±4.035,411 openings

7 days

92.44%±1.5538.7K openings

30 days

92.34%±1.4345.8K openings

since tracking started

92.34%±1.4345.8K openings

86.5%91.3%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,411	91.40%±4.03	+0.3σ	odds
7d	38.7K	92.44%±1.55	+1.9σ	odds
30d	45.8K	92.34%±1.43	+1.9σ	odds
All	45.8K	92.34%±1.43	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$116 166 coins	0.3%	1	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$49.41 70.59 coins	0.6%	4	4.6	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$41.85 59.78 coins	0.2%	2	2.3	0.87×
MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 10,000	$32.21 46.02 coins	0.4%	5	4.6	1.09×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33,333	$26.82 38.32 coins	0.1%	2	1.4	1.45×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$19.30 27.57 coins	0.7%	13	13.8	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 164	$11.00 15.71 coins	8.0%	307	280.0	1.10×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$9.84 14.06 coins	0.4%	19	13.8	1.38×
Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 200	$4.55 6.5 coins	2.7%	240	229.5	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 2,000	$4.44 6.35 coins	0.3%	24	22.9	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Antique (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$4.00 5.71 coins	0.2%	19	22.9	0.83×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$3.38 4.83 coins	1.4%	166	160.6	1.03×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$2.96 4.23 coins	3.5%	455	459.0	0.99×
Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$2.39 3.41 coins	5.7%	935	918.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.78 2.54 coins	4.2%	909	918.0	0.99×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.64 2.34 coins	7.8%	1,804	1835.9	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.33 1.9 coins	3.2%	976	918.0	1.06×
Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer	11.0%	$1.26 1.8 coins	16.5%	5,004	5048.8	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$1.11 1.58 coins	4.0%	1,372	1376.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.02 1.45 coins	4.8%	1,928	1835.9	1.05×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.97 1.38 coins	8.1%	3,180	3212.9	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.94 1.35 coins	3.4%	1,386	1376.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.84 1.2 coins	4.0%	1,846	1835.9	1.01×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.82 1.17 coins	6.8%	3,246	3212.9	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.80 1.14 coins	7.9%	3,933	3832.5	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	20.0%	$0.12 0.17 coins	2.8%	8,963	9179.6	0.98×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	20.0%	$0.08 0.11 coins	1.8%	9,159	9179.6	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classifiedVeckans$0.901.28 coins$117167 coins130.5x4d

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.901.29 coins$48.8269.75 coins54.07x3d

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.901.29 coins$48.8269.75 coins54.07x4d

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.901.28 coins$48.8269.75 coins54.49x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.921.32 coins$1.111.58 coins1.20x2m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.921.32 coins$0.080.11 coins0.08x2m

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedsirwins.a.not$0.921.32 coins$0.821.17 coins0.89x2m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedGuliu Rukau$0.921.32 coins$0.971.38 coins1.05x2m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.921.32 coins$1.021.45 coins1.10x2m

Galil AR | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumersirwins.a.not$0.921.32 coins$1.261.8 coins1.36x2m

UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$0.921.32 coins$0.120.17 coins0.13x2m

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specGuliu Rukau$0.921.32 coins$1.331.9 coins1.44x2m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$0.921.32 coins$0.971.38 coins1.05x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.71%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 08:16 UTC	$0.92	90.71%	27
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.92	90.95%	27
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$0.90	91.23%	27
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$0.91	90.91%	27
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$0.91	90.81%	27
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.90	91.05%	27
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$0.91	90.57%	27
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$0.90	91.13%	27
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.90	91.14%	27
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$0.90	91.01%	27
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$0.88	91.21%	27
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$0.88	91.15%	27
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.88	91.25%	27
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$0.88	91.01%	27
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.88	90.87%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 1.0%mil spec 12.0%covert 0.0%consumer 11.1%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 35.4%industrial 20.5%Uncommon 20.0%best hit $117 (130.5x)