Pharaoh

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.90

31.28 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $19.91 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.92%

6,272 openings, odds method

Variance

16.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.25%±26.51882 openings

7 days

89.67%±10.745,359 openings

30 days

88.92%±9.926,272 openings

since tracking started

88.92%±9.926,272 openings

69.0%96.3%123.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	882	96.25%±26.5	+0.4σ	odds
7d	5,359	89.67%±10.7	−0.2σ	odds
30d	6,272	88.92%±9.92	−0.4σ	odds
All	6,272	88.92%±9.92	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,272 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$4,305 6,150 coins	2.2%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,454 3,505 coins	1.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,569 2,241 coins	3.2%	2	2.5	0.80×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,301 1,859 coins	1.3%	2	1.3	1.59×
Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$1,007 1,439 coins	5.1%	10	6.3	1.59×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 1,429	$883 1,262 coins	3.1%	5	4.4	1.14×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$878 1,254 coins	4.4%	6	6.3	0.96×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 400	$330 472 coins	4.1%	22	15.7	1.40×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$286 409 coins	7.2%	23	31.4	0.73×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 56	$191 273 coins	17.3%	86	112.9	0.76×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$120 171 coins	7.8%	72	81.5	0.88×
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 143	$117 167 coins	4.1%	47	43.9	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$58.58 83.69 coins	13.8%	293	294.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$49.73 71.05 coins	18.7%	489	470.4	1.04×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 34	$43.76 62.52 coins	6.4%	189	181.9	1.04×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.1%	2,512	2508.8	1.00×
P90 \| Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,513	2508.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$21.9031.28 coins$2,4543,505 coins112.1x15h

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert$21.8931.27 coins$1,5072,153 coins68.85x5d

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert$21.8931.27 coins$1,5072,153 coins68.85x7d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$21.8931.27 coins$1,3521,931 coins61.75x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$21.8331.19 coins$1,3011,859 coins59.60x2d

Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$21.9031.28 coins$1,0071,439 coins46.00x1d

Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableFlexter.$21.9031.28 coins$1,0071,439 coins46.00x2d

Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$21.8931.27 coins$1,0071,439 coins46.02x3d

Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$21.8931.27 coins$1,0071,439 coins46.02x4d

Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkablehrsnmisgesalle$21.8931.27 coins$1,0071,439 coins46.02x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertJake$21.9031.28 coins$49.7371.05 coins2.27x2m

P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$21.9031.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x43m

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$21.9031.28 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x43m

P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$21.9031.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x43m

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · consumerJake$21.9031.28 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x43m

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$21.9031.28 coins$58.5883.69 coins2.68x43m

★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$21.9031.28 coins$330472 coins15.09x43m

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$21.9031.28 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x46m

P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$21.9031.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x46m

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$21.9031.28 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x46m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$21.90	90.92%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$21.90	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$21.83	90.92%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$21.89	90.90%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 14.2%remarkable 0.1%rare 0.8%gold 0.3%classified 1.8%extraordinary 2.9%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,454 (112.1x)