Philatelist
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.64
49.49 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $31.49 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.72%
501 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 501 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragonmusic kit · high$34.6449.49 coins$1.792.56 coins0.05x
Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high$34.6449.49 coins$2.393.41 coins0.07x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragonmusic kit · high$34.6449.49 coins$1.792.56 coins0.05x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragonmusic kit · highArcs$34.6449.49 coins$1.792.56 coins0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $34.64 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.63 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $33.93 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.14 | 90.91% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 8.7%remarkable 9.5%extraordinary 21.8%high 60.0%best hit —