Phoenix

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$224.40

321 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $204.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.36%

38 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

38 openings · below min

since tracking started

38 openings · below min

46.0%84.3%122.5%

Small sample. 38 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	28	82.50%±35.7	—	odds
30d	38	91.36%±30.6	—	odds
All	38	91.36%±30.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$1,446 2,065 coins	3.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$1,204 1,720 coins	8.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 40	$660 943 coins	8.1%	1	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	18.5%	$396 565 coins	35.9%	10	7.0	1.42×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$379 541 coins	5.6%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$295 421 coins	2.9%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14	$274 392 coins	9.4%	1	2.7	0.38×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$148 211 coins	5.8%	5	3.0	1.64×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$130 185 coins	9.5%	6	5.7	1.05×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	18.0%	$65.95 94.22 coins	5.8%	6	6.8	0.88×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.0%	$52.51 75.02 coins	3.1%	5	4.6	1.10×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	12.0%	$26.36 37.66 coins	1.6%	2	4.6	0.44×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.