Photograph

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.89

1.27 coins

Advertised RTP

91.18%

EV $0.81 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.58%

75.8K openings, odds method

Variance

21.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 30

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.50%±10.327,569 openings

7 days

90.78%±3.5463.7K openings

30 days

90.58%±3.2475.8K openings

since tracking started

90.58%±3.2475.8K openings

86.5%98.5%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7,569	99.50%±10.3	+1.6σ	odds
7d	63.7K	90.78%±3.54	−0.1σ	odds
30d	75.8K	90.58%±3.24	−0.2σ	odds
All	75.8K	90.58%±3.24	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$81.20 116 coins	20.0%	146	151.8	0.96×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 10,000	$41.13 58.76 coins	0.5%	8	7.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$24.93 35.61 coins	0.6%	16	15.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$17.34 24.77 coins	2.1%	87	75.9	1.15×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 3,333	$15.26 21.8 coins	0.6%	22	22.8	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,000	$13.61 19.45 coins	0.8%	34	38.0	0.90×
Sticker \| Golden (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 250	$12.28 17.54 coins	6.1%	316	303.7	1.04×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 200	$8.47 12.1 coins	5.2%	356	379.6	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$8.11 11.58 coins	20.0%	1,515	1518.3	1.00×
Sticker \| Team SoloMid (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 133	$7.53 10.76 coins	7.0%	551	569.4	0.97×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$6.62 9.46 coins	2.5%	237	227.7	1.04×
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$4.07 5.82 coins	5.0%	781	759.1	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.72 2.46 coins	8.5%	3,033	3036.6	1.00×
Sticker \| dupreeh \| Boston 2018sticker · high	1 in 17	$1.54 2.2 coins	11.4%	4,606	4554.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$0.85 1.21 coins	6.9%	5,135	5040.7	1.02×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$0.45 0.64 coins	1.7%	2,244	2277.4	0.99×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.4%	19,024	18978.5	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.4%	18,933	18978.5	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.2%	18,870	18978.5	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMüsse$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x2d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x2d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x3d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertdaffodil$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x3d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x3d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMona#Lisa$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x3d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertdaffodil$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x3d

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.901.28 coins$81.90117 coins91.41x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKana$0.891.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x3m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.891.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x3m

Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.891.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x3m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.891.27 coins$0.851.21 coins0.95x3m

Sticker | compLexity Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable$0.891.27 coins$4.075.82 coins4.58x3m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.891.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x3m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.891.27 coins$0.851.21 coins0.95x5m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.891.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x5m

Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.891.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x5m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.891.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.02x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.18%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$0.89	91.18%	19
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$0.89	91.23%	19
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$0.90	90.80%	19
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.90	90.72%	19
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$0.90	90.73%	19
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$0.92	90.81%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.92	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%industrial 0.6%classified 0.0%restricted 9.0%uncommon 3.0%remarkable 1.4%exotic 0.8%mil spec 4.0%high 6.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $81.90 (91.41x)