PINKY PROMISE
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.71
61.02 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $38.83 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.51%
1,106 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,106 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$43.3661.94 coins$8741,248 coins20.15x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2MalstR0m$42.7161.02 coins$8551,221 coins20.01x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2LOOSER$43.3661.94 coins$7721,103 coins17.81x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$43.3661.94 coins$565807 coins13.03x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Pekkatron$42.7161.02 coins$562803 coins13.16x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.71 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.86 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.36 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.7%legendary 0.6%classified 5.0%epic 1.2%exotic 69.5%master 4.0%high 5.5%remarkable 7.5%best hit $874 (20.15x)