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Pinned

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.42
4.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.98%
EV $3.11 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.59%
10.8K openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.06%±4.361,068 openings
7 days
91.60%±1.529,290 openings
30 days
91.59%±1.4110.8K openings
since tracking started
91.59%±1.4110.8K openings
85.0%90.0%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,06890.06%±4.36−0.4σodds
7d9,29091.60%±1.52+0.9σodds
30d10.8K91.59%±1.41+1.0σodds
All10.8K91.59%±1.41+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 100,000$596 851 coins0.2%00.1—
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 50,000$151 216 coins0.1%10.2—
Valeria Phoenix Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 33,333$41.94 59.92 coins0.0%10.3—
Howl Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 20,000$35.01 50.02 coins0.1%10.5—
Guardian Elite Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 10,000$34.16 48.8 coins0.1%01.10.00×
Dust II Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 2,000$24.80 35.43 coins0.4%45.40.74×
Alyx Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 1,124$21.72 31.03 coins0.6%89.60.83×
Health Pinpin · remarkable1 in 1,111$19.50 27.86 coins0.6%119.71.13×
Civil Protection Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 667$14.31 20.45 coins0.7%1716.21.05×
Brigadier General Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 500$11.65 16.65 coins0.8%2821.61.29×
Chroma Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 500$10.97 15.67 coins0.7%2221.61.02×
Cache Pinpin · exotic1 in 1,000$9.70 13.86 coins0.3%2110.81.94×
Mirage Pinpin · exotic1 in 333$7.64 10.92 coins0.7%3532.51.08×
Office Pinpin · remarkable1 in 167$6.18 8.83 coins1.2%7264.91.11×
Aces High Pinpin · exotic1 in 200$5.87 8.39 coins0.9%3554.10.65×
Cobblestone Pinpin · remarkable1 in 250$5.41 7.73 coins0.7%5043.31.16×
Vortigaunt Pinpin · exotic1 in 125$5.06 7.23 coins1.3%8686.60.99×
Nuke Pinpin · high1 in 50$4.77 6.82 coins3.1%214216.40.99×
Copper Lambda Pinpin · remarkable1 in 91$4.72 6.74 coins1.7%111119.00.93×
Bloodhound Pinpin · exotic1 in 143$4.63 6.62 coins1.0%8175.71.07×
Inferno Pinpin · exotic1 in 67$4.61 6.59 coins2.2%173162.31.07×
Hydra Pinpin · exotic1 in 36$4.30 6.14 coins3.9%328303.01.08×
Lambda Pinpin · high1 in 45$4.26 6.08 coins3.0%239238.01.00×
Black Mesa Pinpin · high1 in 31$4.16 5.94 coins4.3%351346.21.01×
Victory Pinpin · remarkable1 in 23$3.77 5.39 coins5.3%485476.11.02×
Phoenix Pinpin · high1 in 21$3.35 4.79 coins5.2%502519.40.97×
Guardian Pinpin · high1 in 15$3.07 4.39 coins6.5%755714.11.06×
Overpass Pinpin · remarkable1 in 19$2.93 4.18 coins4.9%559562.60.99×
City 17 Pinpin · high1 in 13$2.83 4.05 coins7.3%894865.61.03×
Guardian 2 Pinpin · high14.0%$2.64 3.77 coins11.9%1,4571514.80.96×
Easy Peasy Pinpin · remarkable1 in 11$2.41 3.44 coins7.0%1,037973.81.06×
Inferno 2 Pinpin · remarkable20.0%$2.41 3.44 coins15.5%2,1092164.00.97×
Train Pinpin · high11.0%$2.20 3.15 coins7.8%1,1331190.20.95×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Train Pinpin · highBiO-HaZarD$3.424.88 coins$2.203.15 coins0.65x
Inferno 2 Pinpin · remarkablemellow111.$3.424.88 coins$2.413.44 coins0.70x
Inferno 2 Pinpin · remarkable$3.424.88 coins$2.413.44 coins0.70x
Inferno 2 Pinpin · remarkable$3.424.88 coins$2.413.44 coins0.70x
Overpass Pinpin · remarkable$3.424.88 coins$2.934.18 coins0.86x
Easy Peasy Pinpin · remarkable$3.424.88 coins$2.413.44 coins0.70x
Nuke Pinpin · high$3.424.88 coins$4.776.82 coins1.40x
Easy Peasy Pinpin · remarkable✯ThrOnez✯$3.424.88 coins$2.413.44 coins0.70x
Victory Pinpin · remarkable$3.424.88 coins$3.775.39 coins1.10x
Guardian Pinpin · high$3.424.88 coins$3.074.39 coins0.90x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$3.4290.98%33
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$3.3790.89%33
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$3.3790.90%33
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 51.8%remarkable 40.8%extraordinary 0.7%exotic 6.7%best hit —