Pinpoint
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.51
89.3 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $56.83 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.69%
741 openings, odds method
Variance
13.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 741 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireVilkkuzi$64.2991.84 coins$3,9695,670 coins61.74x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$64.2991.84 coins$2,0402,915 coins31.74x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$64.2991.84 coins$2,0402,915 coins31.74x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$64.2991.84 coins$7811,116 coins12.15x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$62.5189.3 coins$7711,101 coins12.33x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP7 | Armor Core (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$62.5189.3 coins$1.271.81 coins0.02x
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1$62.5189.3 coins$85.40122 coins1.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $62.51 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.51 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.54 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $64.29 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $64.29 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.28 | 90.91% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%covert 30.5%extraordinary 3.0%classified 0.8%restricted 45.5%mil spec 20.0%best hit $3,969 (61.74x)