Pitstop

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$140.64

201 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $127.85 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.14%

81 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

68 openings · below min

30 days

81 openings · below min

since tracking started

81 openings · below min

29.5%109.0%188.5%

Small sample. 81 openings and 8.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	116.36%±71.4	—	odds
7d	68	67.06%±37.0	—	odds
30d	81	105.14%±33.9	—	odds
All	81	105.14%±33.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$1,100 1,572 coins	30.1%	4	2.8	1.41×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$939 1,342 coins	1.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$920 1,315 coins	3.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$865 1,235 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$568 812 coins	4.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$475 678 coins	1.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$455 650 coins	2.8%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$307 438 coins	3.6%	3	1.2	2.47×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 47	$255 364 coins	4.3%	3	1.7	1.72×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 43	$222 317 coins	4.1%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$218 311 coins	10.2%	1	4.9	0.21×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$98.70 141 coins	3.5%	4	3.6	1.10×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	17.0%	$65.09 92.98 coins	8.7%	15	13.8	1.09×
PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	23.2%	$53.47 76.39 coins	9.7%	14	18.8	0.75×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	19.0%	$46.92 67.03 coins	7.0%	16	15.4	1.04×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	18.0%	$36.43 52.05 coins	5.1%	17	14.6	1.17×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$141202 coins$1,1311,616 coins8.00x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$141201 coins$1,1001,572 coins7.82x19h

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$141202 coins$9391,342 coins6.64x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$141201 coins$475678 coins3.37x19h

★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$141201 coins$36.4352.05 coins0.26x19h

USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$141201 coins$46.9267.03 coins0.33x19h

★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert$141201 coins$65.0992.98 coins0.46x19h

PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil specLars$141201 coins$53.4776.39 coins0.38x19h

★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$141201 coins$36.4352.05 coins0.26x19h

PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$141201 coins$53.4776.39 coins0.38x19h

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$141201 coins$1,1001,572 coins7.82x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$141	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$141	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$141	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 21.3%legendary 1.5%covert 35.0%mil spec 23.2%restricted 19.0%best hit $1,131 (8.00x)