Pixel
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$140.26
200 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $127.51 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.17%
54 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 54 openings and 7.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$143204 coins$622889 coins4.37x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$143204 coins$622889 coins4.37x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedCall me Johnny$140200 coins$30.1143.02 coins0.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $140 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 53.2%extraordinary 0.8%epic 2.5%classified 20.0%restricted 23.5%best hit $727 (5.10x)