Plan B

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$279.74

400 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $254.31 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.42%

52 openings, odds method

Variance

20.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

52 openings · below min

since tracking started

52 openings · below min

-0.5%176.0%352.5%

Small sample. 52 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	96.36%±255.6	—	odds
7d	46	70.26%±130.2	—	odds
30d	52	67.42%±122.4	—	odds
All	52	67.42%±122.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$70K 100,000 coins	2.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 400	$20.8K 29,650 coins	20.4%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$1,949 2,785 coins	6.1%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 69	$1,282 1,832 coins	7.3%	1	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$808 1,154 coins	6.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 40	$549 784 coins	5.4%	3	1.3	2.31×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$274 392 coins	3.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14	$259 370 coins	7.1%	2	3.6	0.55×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 13	$174 249 coins	5.5%	3	4.2	0.72×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	25.0%	$128 183 coins	12.6%	13	13.0	1.00×
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	25.0%	$120 172 coins	11.8%	14	13.0	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	25.0%	$116 166 coins	11.4%	15	13.0	1.15×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.