Plank

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$68.69

98.13 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $62.45 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.64%

7,091 openings, odds method

Variance

50.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 111

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

386 openings · below min

7 days

90.27%±17.606,297 openings

30 days

90.64%±16.597,091 openings

since tracking started

90.64%±16.597,091 openings

35.5%106.7%178.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	386	106.80%±70.6	—	odds
7d	6,297	90.27%±17.6	−0.1σ	odds
30d	7,091	90.64%±16.6	−0.0σ	odds
All	7,091	90.64%±16.6	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,091 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$6,780 9,685 coins	10.9%	7	7.1	0.99×
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 333	$5,040 7,200 coins	24.2%	21	21.3	0.99×
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 500	$4,305 6,150 coins	13.8%	12	14.2	0.85×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 333	$4,088 5,840 coins	19.6%	21	21.3	0.99×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 333	$2,895 4,135 coins	13.9%	22	21.3	1.03×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$1,018 1,454 coins	4.9%	21	21.3	0.99×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$532 760 coins	2.6%	24	21.3	1.13×
Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 333	$448 640 coins	2.2%	27	21.3	1.27×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$274 391 coins	1.3%	24	21.3	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$273 390 coins	1.7%	31	28.4	1.09×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 333	$237 338 coins	1.1%	29	21.3	1.36×
Sticker \| TACO (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 250	$172 246 coins	1.1%	28	28.4	0.99×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$160 228 coins	1.0%	37	28.4	1.30×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$151 216 coins	1.0%	30	28.4	1.06×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$61.92 88.45 coins	0.7%	56	49.6	1.13×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	3,251	3191.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	50.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	3,450	3545.5	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$69.2998.99 coins$7,47910,685 coins107.9x4d

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$69.2998.99 coins$7,47910,685 coins107.9x5d

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$69.2998.99 coins$7,47910,685 coins107.9x6d

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$69.2998.99 coins$7,47910,685 coins107.9x7d

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.6998.13 coins$6,7809,685 coins98.70x11h

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.6998.13 coins$6,7809,685 coins98.70x1d

Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.6998.13 coins$5,0407,200 coins73.37x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$68.6998.13 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x18m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$68.6998.13 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x18m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerJhon csgoroll.com$68.6998.13 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x18m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$68.6998.13 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x19m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$68.6998.13 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x19m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$68.6998.13 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$68.69	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$68.71	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$69.29	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.7%legendary 0.5%covert 0.9%extraordinary 2.2%restricted 0.4%rare 0.3%consumer 95.0%best hit $7,479 (107.9x)