Plated
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.31
37.59 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $23.92 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.61%
411 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (57.16% – 90.05%, 411 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 411 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · mil speccsgoroll prayer$26.3137.59 coins$27.4239.17 coins1.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.31 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.66 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.64 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 14.1%classified 6.0%mil spec 19.8%consumer 60.0%best hit —