Pointy

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$47.57

67.95 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $43.24 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.72%

1,042 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

22 openings · below min

7 days

84.10%±15.05749 openings

30 days

83.72%±12.771,042 openings

since tracking started

83.72%±12.771,042 openings

-0.5%81.0%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	22	74.67%±87.1	—	odds
7d	749	84.10%±15.1	−0.9σ	odds
30d	1,042	83.72%±12.8	−1.1σ	odds
All	1,042	83.72%±12.8	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,042 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,775 2,535 coins	2.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$1,325 1,893 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,299 1,856 coins	1.5%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$1,161 1,658 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20,000	$1,108 1,583 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$429 613 coins	5.0%	4	5.2	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 35	$314 449 coins	21.0%	31	30.1	1.03×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$310 443 coins	0.4%	1	0.5	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$278 397 coins	19.3%	15	31.3	0.48×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 22	$195 278 coins	20.3%	46	46.9	0.98×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$98.70 141 coins	18.1%	95	82.8	1.15×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 17	$86.80 124 coins	12.0%	66	62.5	1.06×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	75.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	783	781.5	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBaCraMo- csgoroll.com$47.5767.95 coins$1,7752,535 coins37.31x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$47.5767.95 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x18h

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertlocked in robben$47.5767.95 coins$314449 coins6.61x18h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$47.5767.95 coins$86.80124 coins1.82x18h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$47.5767.95 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x19h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerViggerMcNieger$47.5767.95 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x19h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$47.5767.95 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerShelp Jr.$47.5767.95 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$47.57	90.90%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$47.38	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 22.0%extraordinary 3.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $1,775 (37.31x)