Polar

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$83.27

119 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $75.69 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.73%

1,320 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.95%±21.74231 openings

7 days

91.10%±9.701,155 openings

30 days

90.73%±9.071,320 openings

since tracking started

90.73%±9.071,320 openings

63.5%86.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	231	85.95%±21.7	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,155	91.10%±9.70	+0.0σ	odds
30d	1,320	90.73%±9.07	−0.0σ	odds
All	1,320	90.73%±9.07	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,320 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,500	$4,197 5,995 coins	2.2%	0	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$3,311 4,730 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$1,544 2,206 coins	1.0%	1	0.7	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$957 1,367 coins	1.3%	1	1.3	0.76×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$628 897 coins	4.1%	6	6.6	0.91×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$274 391 coins	10.8%	49	39.6	1.24×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 25	$273 390 coins	14.4%	52	52.8	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 44	$242 346 coins	7.2%	48	29.7	1.62×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 67	$228 326 coins	4.5%	11	19.8	0.56×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 31	$183 261 coins	7.8%	32	42.9	0.75×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 18	$140 200 coins	10.2%	67	72.6	0.92×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	19.8%	$137 196 coins	35.9%	267	261.4	1.02×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	278	264.0	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	246	264.0	0.93×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	262	264.0	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$86.21123 coins$1,5092,156 coins17.51x5d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirestzy$86.21123 coins$9481,354 coins10.99x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireRixxyGFX$86.21123 coins$635907 coins7.37x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireL3MON™ csgoroll.com$86.21123 coins$635907 coins7.37x5d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$83.27119 coins$628897 coins7.54x12h

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$83.27119 coins$628897 coins7.54x17h

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireCecil Tyler$83.27119 coins$628897 coins7.54x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$83.27119 coins$628897 coins7.54x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$83.27119 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x42m

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$83.27119 coins$137196 coins1.65x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$83.27119 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKlass 2$83.27119 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$83.27119 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x2h

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$83.27119 coins$228326 coins2.74x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerazi$83.27119 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$83.27119 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x4h

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$83.27119 coins$137196 coins1.65x4h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$83.27119 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$83.27	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$83.26	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$86.21	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.3%rare 3.3%extraordinary 5.5%consumer 60.0%best hit $1,509 (17.51x)