Polished
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.30
3.29 coins
Advertised RTP
91.04%
EV $2.10 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.94%
33.1K openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $184 263 coins | 8.8% | 25 | 33.2 | 0.75× |
| Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $11.32 16.17 coins | 48.6% | 2,967 | 2985.5 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 400 | $4.94 7.05 coins | 0.6% | 73 | 82.9 | 0.88× |
| Nova | Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $3.52 5.03 coins | 2.1% | 425 | 414.7 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $2.99 4.27 coins | 28.5% | 6,715 | 6634.4 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $2.57 3.67 coins | 11.0% | 2,985 | 2985.5 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.2% | 6,633 | 6634.4 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 6,578 | 6634.4 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,771 | 6767.1 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertLaguigneenpersonne$2.333.33 coins$196280 coins84.08x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCARRITOS MAISTER$2.303.29 coins$2.994.27 coins1.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.30 | 91.04% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.30 | 90.98% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.32 | 91.00% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.33 | 90.96% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.33 | 90.88% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 29.0%mil spec 0.3%restricted 10.3%consumer 60.4%best hit $196 (84.08x)