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Polymerization

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$164.26
235 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $149.33 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.85%
4,290 openings, odds method
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 34
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
75.49%±40.17486 openings
7 days
87.91%±14.943,504 openings
30 days
93.85%±13.504,290 openings
since tracking started
93.85%±13.504,290 openings
34.5%75.5%116.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h48675.49%±40.2−0.8σodds
7d3,50487.91%±14.9−0.4σodds
30d4,29093.85%±13.5+0.4σodds
All4,29093.85%±13.5+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,290 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$12K 17,180 coins8.1%44.30.93×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 500$11.4K 16,295 coins15.3%98.61.05×
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$6,465 9,235 coins4.3%64.31.40×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 200$2,769 3,955 coins9.3%2321.41.07×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 286$2,401 3,430 coins5.6%1815.01.20×
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$2,230 3,185 coins3.0%108.61.17×
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 67$1,177 1,682 coins11.8%5764.30.89×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 286$1,161 1,658 coins2.7%2115.01.40×
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 200$1,033 1,475 coins3.5%2621.41.21×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 31 in 143$966 1,380 coins4.5%2230.00.73×
★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 143$738 1,054 coins3.5%3030.01.00×
★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 91$627 896 coins4.6%5547.21.17×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 91$611 873 coins4.5%4647.20.97×
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 77$455 650 coins4.0%4855.80.86×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 41 in 67$397 567 coins4.0%6464.30.99×
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 77$307 438 coins2.7%4955.80.88×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 40$178 254 coins3.0%114107.31.06×
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 57$174 249 coins2.0%7075.10.93×
★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 57$155 221 coins1.8%7475.10.99×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 40$113 161 coins1.9%110107.31.03×
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer30.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%1,2141287.00.94×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%1,1141072.51.04×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%1,1061072.51.03×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryDevoN =)$164235 coins$12K17,180 coins73.21x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$164235 coins$12K17,180 coins73.21x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$165236 coins$12K17,180 coins72.88x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarytiltedfish$165236 coins$12K17,180 coins72.88x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlHirschbaer$164235 coins$11.4K16,295 coins69.44x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$164235 coins$11.4K16,295 coins69.44x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$165236 coins$11.4K16,295 coins69.13x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$165236 coins$11.4K16,295 coins69.13x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$165236 coins$11.4K16,295 coins69.13x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$165236 coins$11.4K16,295 coins69.13x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$164235 coins$7381,054 coins4.49x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$164235 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$164235 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$164235 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$164235 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$164235 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$164235 coins$307438 coins1.87x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$164235 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$164235 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$164235 coins$397567 coins2.42x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC$16490.91%23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$16490.91%23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$16590.91%23
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 10.4%covert 8.0%legendary 1.6%consumer 80.0%best hit $12K (73.21x)