Postcard

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.16

21.66 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $13.79 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.99%

1,603 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.95%±16.37271 openings

7 days

90.92%±7.001,479 openings

30 days

92.99%±6.731,603 openings

since tracking started

92.99%±6.731,603 openings

77.0%94.0%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	271	93.95%±16.4	+0.4σ	odds
7d	1,479	90.92%±7.00	−0.0σ	odds
30d	1,603	92.99%±6.73	+0.6σ	odds
All	1,603	92.99%±6.73	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,603 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 6,667	$293 418 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,333	$132 188 coins	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 1,250	$118 169 coins	0.7%	1	1.3	0.78×
Souvenir MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 500	$106 151 coins	1.5%	2	3.2	0.62×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$105 150 coins	2.5%	4	5.3	0.76×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 111	$98.00 140 coins	6.4%	13	14.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 71	$93.80 134 coins	9.5%	23	22.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 59	$67.01 95.73 coins	8.3%	37	27.3	1.36×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 59	$65.09 92.98 coins	8.0%	28	27.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 53	$47.31 67.59 coins	6.5%	34	30.5	1.12×
Sticker \| Flash Gaming (Holo) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 53	$43.42 62.03 coins	6.0%	35	30.5	1.15×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$37.33 53.33 coins	5.4%	33	32.1	1.03×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$29.34 41.92 coins	4.3%	32	32.1	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$20.28 28.97 coins	3.1%	49	33.7	1.46×
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$20.11 28.73 coins	3.9%	34	43.3	0.79×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$9.86 14.09 coins	3.5%	83	78.5	1.06×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 15	$8.59 12.27 coins	4.0%	106	104.2	1.02×
Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 11	$6.57 9.39 coins	4.2%	135	141.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.9%	$5.87 8.39 coins	5.1%	183	190.8	0.96×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	14.5%	$5.68 8.12 coins	6.0%	218	232.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	17.0%	$5.06 7.23 coins	6.2%	288	272.5	1.06×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	17.4%	$2.99 4.27 coins	3.8%	265	278.9	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$15.1621.66 coins$5.688.12 coins0.37x48m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.1621.66 coins$2.994.27 coins0.20x48m

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$15.1621.66 coins$5.688.12 coins0.37x48m

Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable$15.1621.66 coins$6.579.39 coins0.43x48m

Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkableTerroristi$15.1621.66 coins$6.579.39 coins0.43x48m

XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$15.1621.66 coins$9.8614.09 coins0.65x48m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.1621.66 coins$2.994.27 coins0.20x1h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.1621.66 coins$5.878.39 coins0.39x1h

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$15.1621.66 coins$5.688.12 coins0.37x1h

Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkableElChapo$15.1621.66 coins$6.579.39 coins0.43x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.16	90.92%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.40	90.92%	22
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$15.37	90.91%	22
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$15.46	90.90%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.41	90.91%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 17.9%epic 0.2%classified 39.0%covert 6.6%remarkable 10.7%mil spec 19.1%Legendary 6.5%best hit —