Power

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.08

17.25 coins

Advertised RTP

90.88%

EV $10.97 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.55%

1,987 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.45%±13.53262 openings

7 days

89.35%±5.511,527 openings

30 days

90.55%±4.811,987 openings

since tracking started

90.55%±4.811,987 openings

77.5%91.5%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	262	91.45%±13.5	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,527	89.35%±5.51	−0.6σ	odds
30d	1,987	90.55%±4.81	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,987	90.55%±4.81	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,987 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$118 169 coins	1.1%	1	2.0	0.50×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$90.30 129 coins	10.7%	30	25.8	1.16×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 400	$78.40 112 coins	1.8%	6	5.0	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 286	$66.84 95.48 coins	2.1%	7	7.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$61.13 87.33 coins	4.5%	12	15.9	0.75×
ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengersother · base	1 in 200	$60.06 85.8 coins	2.7%	9	9.9	0.91×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$25.61 36.58 coins	10.5%	84	89.4	0.94×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$21.01 30.01 coins	3.3%	38	33.8	1.12×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$14.98 21.4 coins	8.2%	124	119.2	1.04×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$11.58 16.54 coins	15.8%	298	298.1	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	12.6%	$11.18 15.97 coins	12.9%	235	250.8	0.94×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$8.97 12.82 coins	5.9%	161	142.7	1.13×
P90 \| Sunset Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 36	$8.75 12.5 coins	2.2%	44	55.6	0.79×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.4%	$5.83 8.33 coins	8.2%	289	306.0	0.94×
P90 \| Schematic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$4.47 6.38 coins	1.4%	72	69.5	1.04×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$3.50 5 coins	4.5%	294	278.2	1.06×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.0%	$3.38 4.83 coins	4.3%	283	278.2	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$12.0817.25 coins$3.384.83 coins0.28x11m

MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$12.0817.25 coins$11.5816.54 coins0.96x11m

MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specBreezy™$12.0817.25 coins$11.5816.54 coins0.96x11m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.0817.25 coins$5.838.33 coins0.48x14m

MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$12.0817.25 coins$11.5816.54 coins0.96x14m

Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specBreezy™$12.0817.25 coins$11.1815.97 coins0.93x14m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBreezy™$12.0817.25 coins$5.838.33 coins0.48x17m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$12.0817.25 coins$61.1387.33 coins5.06x17m

Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$12.0817.25 coins$11.1815.97 coins0.93x17m

P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedCorteco$12.0817.25 coins$3.384.83 coins0.28x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$12.08	90.88%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$12.26	90.93%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.17	90.92%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 35.5%covert 2.4%industrial 3.1%base 0.5%restricted 27.4%mil spec 31.1%best hit —