Precision
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.76
6.8 coins
Advertised RTP
90.97%
EV $4.33 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.21%
10.8K openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.66% – 90.76%, 10,821 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $4.76 | 90.97% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.79 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.79 | 90.97% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.83 | 90.85% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.78 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.74 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $4.74 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $4.66 | 90.94% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.71 | 90.85% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 46.9%industrial 11.0%classified 4.0%restricted 27.0%Rare 9.0%best hit —