Prey
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.89
1.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $0.81 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.17%
57.9K openings, odds method
Variance
37.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 90
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert🥦VirrezzzHD🥦$0.881.26 coins$82.60118 coins93.65x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covertskinhub.com DAggerdick$0.891.27 coins$50.2771.81 coins56.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.89 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.89 | 91.27% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.90 | 90.76% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.88 | 91.25% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.88 | 91.05% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.88 | 90.85% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%classified 0.3%restricted 10.3%mil spec 9.0%industrial 35.3%consumer 44.0%best hit $82.60 (93.65x)