Prism
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.00
55.71 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $35.45 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.84%
830 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.04% – 130.64%, 830 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 830 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$39.0055.71 coins$1,0501,500 coins26.93x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.7656.8 coins$8131,162 coins20.46x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$39.0055.71 coins$679970 coins17.41x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyNeVerLucK$39.0055.71 coins$679970 coins17.41x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubydr cheryll erwin$39.7656.8 coins$664949 coins16.71x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$39.7656.8 coins$664949 coins16.71x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyBazzeヅ$39.7656.8 coins$664949 coins16.71x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covertUser#878$39.7656.8 coins$578825 coins14.52x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$39.0055.71 coins$5.197.42 coins0.13x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$39.0055.71 coins$26.3637.66 coins0.68x
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLebra$39.0055.71 coins$18.8226.88 coins0.48x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0055.71 coins$59.9185.58 coins1.54x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0055.71 coins$59.9185.58 coins1.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.00 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.47 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.76 | 90.90% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.7%extraordinary 5.0%legendary 0.7%classified 9.0%high 7.5%#d32ee6 14.0%restricted 40.1%best hit $1,688 (43.28x)