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Prisma Case

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.30
4.72 coins
Advertised RTP
90.87%
EV $3.00 from 85 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.49%
13.5K openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
94.22%±16.561,591 openings
7 days
89.73%±6.1311.6K openings
30 days
91.49%±5.6813.5K openings
since tracking started
91.49%±5.6813.5K openings
77.0%94.3%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,59194.22%±16.6+0.4σodds
7d11.6K89.73%±6.13−0.4σodds
30d13.5K91.49%±5.68+0.2σodds
All13.5K91.49%±5.68+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$368 526 coins1.2%01.30.00×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 5,000$325 464 coins2.2%22.70.74×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$186 265 coins1.9%64.01.48×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,111$65.32 93.31 coins2.0%912.10.74×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 1,111$61.05 87.22 coins1.8%1512.11.23×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 200$52.95 75.64 coins8.8%8267.51.21×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 500$52.35 74.78 coins3.5%2627.00.96×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 500$51.30 73.29 coins3.4%2427.00.89×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 167$51.29 73.27 coins10.3%8181.01.00×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 167$50.27 71.81 coins10.0%8581.01.05×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 143$43.77 62.53 coins10.2%9094.50.95×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 250$30.24 43.2 coins4.0%6554.01.20×
AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500$27.10 38.71 coins1.8%2327.00.85×
AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 500$25.44 36.34 coins1.7%2327.00.85×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 500$16.08 22.97 coins1.1%3427.01.26×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 500$15.42 22.03 coins1.0%2727.01.00×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 200$13.16 18.8 coins2.2%6967.51.02×
AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 200$10.65 15.22 coins1.8%6367.50.93×
AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 200$7.06 10.08 coins1.2%7467.51.10×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$6.43 9.19 coins1.1%7767.51.14×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 143$5.73 8.18 coins1.3%9394.50.98×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 125$5.38 7.69 coins1.4%84108.00.78×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 125$5.22 7.45 coins1.4%120108.01.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 200$4.40 6.28 coins0.7%6367.50.93×
AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 143$4.36 6.23 coins1.0%8794.50.92×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 111$4.17 5.95 coins1.2%127121.51.05×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 125$4.05 5.79 coins1.1%100108.00.93×
AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 167$3.98 5.68 coins0.8%7681.00.94×
AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 125$3.89 5.55 coins1.0%119108.01.10×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 143$3.85 5.5 coins0.9%10494.51.10×
AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 111$3.72 5.32 coins1.1%109121.50.90×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 111$3.65 5.21 coins1.1%114121.50.94×
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 167$3.30 4.71 coins0.7%7281.00.89×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 143$3.26 4.65 coins0.8%8094.50.85×
AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 143$3.16 4.51 coins0.7%9694.51.02×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 125$2.37 3.39 coins0.6%100108.00.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 143$2.35 3.36 coins0.5%9494.50.99×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 143$2.22 3.17 coins0.5%9494.50.99×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 111$1.94 2.77 coins0.6%137121.51.13×
MP7 | Mischief (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$1.88 2.68 coins0.6%131135.00.97×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 143$1.53 2.18 coins0.4%10294.51.08×
Galil AR | Akoben (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 111$1.15 1.65 coins0.3%122121.51.00×
P90 | Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$1.09 1.55 coins0.4%141135.01.04×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 125$1.06 1.51 coins0.3%118108.01.09×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 111$1.01 1.44 coins0.3%102121.50.84×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100$0.97 1.39 coins0.3%144135.01.07×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100$0.95 1.36 coins0.3%135135.01.00×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 91$0.90 1.29 coins0.3%121148.50.81×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 111$0.88 1.25 coins0.3%131121.51.08×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 91$0.83 1.19 coins0.3%152148.51.02×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$0.79 1.13 coins0.3%127135.00.94×
P250 | Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$0.74 1.06 coins0.2%120135.00.89×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$0.72 1.03 coins0.2%154135.01.14×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 91$0.59 0.85 coins0.2%131148.50.88×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 71$0.57 0.82 coins0.3%195189.01.03×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100$0.56 0.8 coins0.2%134135.00.99×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 71$0.56 0.8 coins0.3%210189.01.11×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 45$0.52 0.74 coins0.4%288297.00.97×
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 111$0.51 0.73 coins0.2%132121.51.09×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 91$0.50 0.71 coins0.2%141148.50.95×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33$0.50 0.71 coins0.5%391404.90.97×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 83$0.48 0.69 coins0.2%158162.00.98×
Galil AR | Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 91$0.47 0.67 coins0.2%145148.50.98×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 83$0.47 0.67 coins0.2%149162.00.92×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 45$0.41 0.59 coins0.3%304297.01.02×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 91$0.32 0.46 coins0.1%169148.51.14×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 83$0.32 0.45 coins0.1%168162.01.04×
MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 71$0.29 0.42 coins0.1%170189.00.90×
P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 83$0.29 0.41 coins0.1%164162.01.01×
P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 91$0.28 0.4 coins0.1%147148.50.99×
P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 40$0.25 0.36 coins0.2%357337.41.06×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.25 0.36 coins0.3%454404.91.12×
P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.25 0.36 coins0.3%356404.90.88×
P90 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 40$0.24 0.35 coins0.2%337337.41.00×
P250 | Verdigris (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 40$0.24 0.35 coins0.2%344337.41.02×
MP7 | Mischief (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.24 0.35 coins0.2%388404.90.96×
Galil AR | Akoben (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 45$0.24 0.34 coins0.2%310297.01.04×
Galil AR | Akoben (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 40$0.24 0.34 coins0.2%334337.40.99×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.24 0.34 coins0.2%436404.91.08×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.22 0.31 coins0.2%368404.90.91×
Galil AR | Akoben (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 32$0.22 0.31 coins0.2%440426.51.03×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 33$0.19 0.27 coins0.2%432404.91.07×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.18 0.26 coins0.2%427404.91.05×
MP7 | Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.18 0.26 coins0.2%382404.90.94×
P90 | Off World (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.16 0.23 coins0.2%393404.90.97×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$3.304.72 coins$325464 coins98.31x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$3.334.76 coins$325464 coins97.48x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.324.75 coins$184263 coins55.37x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.324.75 coins$184263 coins55.37x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covertJoeyPuddles$3.324.75 coins$184263 coins55.37x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.324.75 coins$184263 coins55.37x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.324.75 coins$184263 coins55.37x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.334.76 coins$184263 coins55.25x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Verdigris (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.304.72 coins$0.240.35 coins0.07x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.304.72 coins$2.353.36 coins0.71x
P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$3.304.72 coins$0.250.36 coins0.08x
MP7 | Mischief (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specSolatyre$3.304.72 coins$0.240.35 coins0.07x
MP7 | Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$3.304.72 coins$0.180.26 coins0.06x
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$3.304.72 coins$5.738.18 coins1.73x
Galil AR | Akoben (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.304.72 coins$0.240.34 coins0.07x
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$3.304.72 coins$3.304.71 coins1.00x
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$3.304.72 coins$0.190.27 coins0.06x
MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSolatyre$3.304.72 coins$0.520.74 coins0.16x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC$3.3090.87%85
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC$3.3090.88%85
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC$3.3090.88%85
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC$3.3090.88%85
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC$3.3090.89%85
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC$3.3090.88%85
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$3.3090.86%85
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$3.3090.89%85
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$3.3290.93%85
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$3.3290.94%85
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$3.3290.96%85
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC$3.3290.96%85
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC$3.3290.97%85
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC$3.3290.94%85
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC$3.3290.99%85
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC$3.3390.88%85
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC$3.3390.88%85
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC$3.3390.89%85
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$3.3390.88%85
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.9%red 0.1%classified 8.4%restricted 24.8%mil spec 56.8%#8847ff 1.9%Rare 2.1%milspec 3.0%best hit $325 (98.31x)