Prismarine

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$41.69

59.56 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $37.90 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.80%

1,115 openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

107 openings · below min

7 days

80.93%±17.60923 openings

30 days

83.80%±15.991,115 openings

since tracking started

83.80%±15.991,115 openings

54.0%106.7%159.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	107	106.96%±52.1	—	odds
7d	923	80.93%±17.6	−1.1σ	odds
30d	1,115	83.80%±16.0	−0.9σ	odds
All	1,115	83.80%±16.0	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$1,241 1,773 coins	16.4%	5	5.6	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$533 762 coins	7.0%	9	5.6	1.61×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$435 622 coins	5.7%	4	5.6	0.72×
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$424 606 coins	5.6%	3	5.6	0.54×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 125	$348 497 coins	7.3%	7	8.9	0.78×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$300 428 coins	9.1%	11	12.8	0.86×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$228 326 coins	3.0%	3	5.6	0.54×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$160 228 coins	3.8%	13	10.0	1.30×
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 100	$134 192 coins	3.5%	9	11.2	0.81×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$110 157 coins	11.6%	32	44.6	0.72×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 77	$108 154 coins	3.7%	18	14.5	1.24×
P2000 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$71.40 102 coins	4.7%	21	27.9	0.75×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$46.78 66.83 coins	2.5%	21	22.3	0.94×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$41.38 59.11 coins	1.6%	18	16.7	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$41.13 58.75 coins	3.3%	38	33.4	1.14×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 56	$35.25 50.35 coins	1.7%	17	20.1	0.85×
MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$17.09 24.41 coins	2.7%	85	66.9	1.27×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$16.47 23.53 coins	2.2%	59	55.8	1.06×
Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$4.21 6.01 coins	0.9%	78	89.2	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	19.1%	$3.82 5.45 coins	1.9%	239	212.4	1.13×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$2.32 3.31 coins	0.9%	157	167.3	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 15	$1.75 2.5 coins	0.3%	79	72.5	1.09×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$1.13 1.61 coins	0.5%	189	200.7	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$43.1361.62 coins$1,2691,813 coins29.42x4d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$43.1561.65 coins$1,2691,813 coins29.41x6d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$43.1561.65 coins$1,2691,813 coins29.41x7d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$41.6959.56 coins$1,2411,773 coins29.77x1d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$41.6959.56 coins$1,2411,773 coins29.77x2d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emeraldtompa3$43.1361.62 coins$535764 coins12.40x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$43.1361.62 coins$535764 coins12.40x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$43.1561.65 coins$535764 coins12.39x6d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$43.1561.65 coins$535764 coins12.39x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumerwSe$41.6959.56 coins$17.0924.41 coins0.41x3m

FAMAS | Sundown (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$41.6959.56 coins$46.7866.83 coins1.12x4m

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryRusty Cake$41.6959.56 coins$160228 coins3.83x5m

StatTrak™ P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$41.6959.56 coins$1.131.61 coins0.03x3h

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$41.6959.56 coins$41.3859.11 coins0.99x3h

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$41.6959.56 coins$41.1358.75 coins0.99x3h

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$41.6959.56 coins$108154 coins2.59x4h

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$41.6959.56 coins$41.1358.75 coins0.99x4h

Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$41.6959.56 coins$2.323.31 coins0.06x4h

StatTrak™ P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$41.6959.56 coins$1.131.61 coins0.03x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$41.69	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$41.70	90.92%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$42.46	90.90%	23
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$43.13	90.91%	23
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$43.15	90.90%	23
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$43.15	90.92%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$43.20	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.5%covert 9.4%restricted 4.1%extraordinary 2.9%rare 1.0%mil spec 61.5%consumer 20.5%best hit $1,269 (29.42x)