Professional

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$352.79

504 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $320.72 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.53%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

6.5%76.5%146.5%

Small sample. 14 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	14	76.53%±69.4	—	odds
30d	14	76.53%±69.4	—	odds
All	14	76.53%±69.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 333	$4,288 6,125 coins	4.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 154	$3,136 4,480 coins	6.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$2,755 3,935 coins	4.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$2,426 3,465 coins	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 182	$2,100 3,000 coins	3.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 125	$1,552 2,217 coins	3.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 133	$1,446 2,065 coins	3.4%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 143	$1,295 1,850 coins	2.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$827 1,182 coins	2.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 29	$596 852 coins	6.5%	2	0.5	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$442 631 coins	4.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 50	$410 585 coins	2.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 25	$363 519 coins	4.5%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$342 488 coins	6.9%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$334 477 coins	7.3%	0	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$300 429 coins	4.7%	1	0.7	—
Sticker \| Calyx (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	14.0%	$255 364 coins	11.1%	1	2.0	0.51×
Glock-18 \| Emerald (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	12.0%	$169 241 coins	6.3%	1	1.7	0.60×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$164 234 coins	5.1%	2	1.4	1.43×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 13	$122 175 coins	3.1%	3	1.1	2.68×
Sir Bloody Miami Darryl \| The Professionalsagent · master	19.4%	$63.66 90.94 coins	3.8%	1	2.7	0.37×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.