Profit Palace

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.66

38.08 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $24.23 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.22%

3,027 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.02%±15.42315 openings

7 days

92.67%±5.262,676 openings

30 days

91.22%±4.943,027 openings

since tracking started

91.22%±4.943,027 openings

77.0%93.0%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	315	93.02%±15.4	+0.3σ	odds
7d	2,676	92.67%±5.26	+0.7σ	odds
30d	3,027	91.22%±4.94	+0.1σ	odds
All	3,027	91.22%±4.94	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,029 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$963 1,376 coins	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$320 457 coins	0.5%	2	1.2	1.65×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$272 388 coins	0.6%	1	1.5	0.66×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$235 336 coins	1.9%	6	6.1	0.99×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 167	$194 277 coins	4.8%	17	18.2	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$174 248 coins	2.9%	10	12.1	0.83×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 125	$130 185 coins	4.3%	41	24.2	1.69×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$118 169 coins	4.4%	19	27.3	0.70×
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Foil) \| Cologne 2016sticker · exotic	1 in 100	$114 163 coins	4.7%	28	30.3	0.92×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$104 148 coins	6.4%	41	45.4	0.90×
Sticker \| shox (Gold) \| Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary	1 in 50	$98.00 140 coins	8.1%	54	60.6	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 40	$84.00 120 coins	8.7%	76	75.7	1.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 29	$66.68 95.26 coins	9.6%	114	106.0	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$50.87 72.67 coins	6.3%	96	90.9	1.06×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 25	$45.06 64.37 coins	7.4%	122	121.2	1.01×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$39.98 57.12 coins	7.4%	142	136.3	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	17.5%	$9.34 13.34 coins	6.7%	545	530.1	1.03×
Sticker \| Team Spirit (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary	17.5%	$8.44 12.06 coins	6.1%	550	530.1	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$5.52 7.89 coins	4.6%	576	605.8	0.95×
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021sticker · extraordinary	20.0%	$5.06 7.23 coins	4.2%	589	605.8	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedQueen$26.6638.08 coins$9.3413.34 coins0.35x6m

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$26.6638.08 coins$130185 coins4.86x21m

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · extraordinary$26.6638.08 coins$5.067.23 coins0.19x38m

Sticker | Team Spirit (Gold) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary$26.6638.08 coins$8.4412.06 coins0.32x38m

Sticker | Team Spirit (Gold) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary$26.6638.08 coins$8.4412.06 coins0.32x44m

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$26.6638.08 coins$45.0664.37 coins1.69x44m

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · extraordinarycsgoroll prayer$26.6638.08 coins$5.067.23 coins0.19x53m

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · extraordinary$26.6638.08 coins$5.067.23 coins0.19x53m

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$26.6638.08 coins$5.527.89 coins0.21x53m

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$26.6638.08 coins$9.3413.34 coins0.35x53m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$26.66	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$27.02	90.91%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$27.09	90.92%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.9%classified 0.6%exotic 1.0%extraordinary 44.0%restricted 40.5%best hit —