Profit Paradise
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.26
4.66 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $2.96 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.77%
42.6K openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.26 | 90.85% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $3.24 | 90.97% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.24 | 90.96% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.23 | 90.98% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.21 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $3.21 | 90.88% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.21 | 90.85% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.21 | 90.88% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $3.20 | 90.84% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.19 | 91.00% | 27 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%classified 9.6%mil spec 50.0%consumer 11.7%restricted 21.0%Mythical 7.0%best hit $188 (57.88x)