Profit Pursuit

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.35

24.78 coins

Advertised RTP

90.93%

EV $15.77 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.86%

1,604 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.96%±23.45149 openings

7 days

84.14%±8.041,293 openings

30 days

86.86%±7.231,604 openings

since tracking started

86.86%±7.231,604 openings

56.0%80.0%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	149	79.96%±23.5	−0.9σ	odds
7d	1,293	84.14%±8.04	−1.6σ	odds
30d	1,604	86.86%±7.23	−1.1σ	odds
All	1,604	86.86%±7.23	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,604 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$440 628 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$360 514 coins	1.1%	0	0.8	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$337 482 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$235 336 coins	1.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$99.40 142 coins	31.5%	75	80.2	0.94×
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$49.23 70.33 coins	9.4%	50	48.1	1.04×
MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$39.78 56.83 coins	7.6%	53	48.1	1.10×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.8%	$26.89 38.42 coins	18.5%	176	173.9	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$19.36 27.66 coins	12.3%	149	160.4	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$12.62 18.03 coins	8.0%	160	160.4	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$9.07 12.95 coins	5.7%	160	160.4	1.00×
P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.27 3.24 coins	2.2%	253	240.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.02 1.45 coins	1.0%	239	240.6	0.99×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$0.92 1.31 coins	1.0%	289	288.7	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$17.3524.78 coins$0.921.31 coins0.05x5m

CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$17.3524.78 coins$49.2370.33 coins2.84x5m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.3524.78 coins$9.0712.95 coins0.52x5m

FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.3524.78 coins$26.8938.42 coins1.55x5m

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSeñor WAC$17.3524.78 coins$19.3627.66 coins1.12x5m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.3524.78 coins$1.021.45 coins0.06x1h

P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.3524.78 coins$2.273.24 coins0.13x1h

MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$17.3524.78 coins$39.7856.83 coins2.29x1h

FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.3524.78 coins$26.8938.42 coins1.55x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 08:16 UTC	$17.35	90.93%	14
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.37	90.89%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.78	90.92%	14
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$16.66	90.89%	14
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$16.65	90.92%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.66	90.90%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.2%mil spec 6.0%restricted 68.8%classified 20.0%best hit —